10 Days!

We are finally down to the last 10 days. There seems to be some GOP infighting going on- always a good sign. Obama is back on the trail after visiting his grandmother in Hawaii. It will be interesting to see what he has to say on Wenesday in his 1/2 hour commercial. Polls are still coming in nicely for Obama but I would imagine that they will tighten soon.

The conventional wisdom is that McCain is losing because of the economy and there's not much he could have done. I think that McCain is largely responsible for his own demise and could have won this race (assuming he won't , of course). He had a huge head start on Obama in the general election and he did little to compete with the Obama-Hillary drama. Also, he blew big event after big event, including every debate and his convention speech. Ultimately, though, I think that McCain's biggest blunder was Palin. It's obvious she isn't qualified and he should have known it. He probably did, but gave into pressure from his advisors. That made him look: 1. desperate 2. weak 3. small.

The last 10 days

Well, not much time now. I don't think much can change this race except something truly extraordinary. Back in the summer, we knew that we would be able to tell how race was going based on where the candidates were in the last two weeks before the election; now we know! Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida were predictable, but VA, NC, IN, and even WV? Not a good sign for McCain at all. I'm waiting to see what happens next week- will the Republicans start to focus solely on winnable House and Senate races, or continue with the hope that McCain can pull it off.

Asia

It appears as though the Asian markets tanked through the night. We'll see what happens on Wall Street. Right now, the futures are only down 73.00 points or so, according to CNBC.

The overnight Zogby poll had good news for Obama- 10 points! The GW poll yesterday had him at only 1 point above McCain, but that poll has been all over the place, so it's not to be trusted. I think Obama's going to be fine if we can avoid any craziness the next two weeks.

Toot

I was sad to hear today that Obama's grandmother is not doing well. In reading his first book, it is clear that she is a very important part of his life and has been his de facto mother since his own mother's death. It would be very sad if she could not live to see him, hopefully, win on November 4.

I also read that McCain is abandoning Colorado. If McCain thinks he is going to win (which I'm really doubting that he does, at this point), he can't do it by fighting hard for Missouri and Virginia. Obama doesn't really need those two, but it looks like he might get both. Let's hope!

Colin Powell

So Colin Powell fully endorsed Obama. I think that the effect will be good for Obama, obviously, but nothing earth shattering. Probably the biggest effect will be to dominate the news on Monday and bring further gloom and doom on the Republicans. Republicans tend to be realistic and more easily disciplined as a party. The Colin Powell endorsement will likely make them feel like this race is increasingly all over with.

Just read the Zogby poll- it comes out at 1 a.m. each day. Although it is not my favorite one because it seems erratic and inconsistent with other polls sometimes, it shows Obama made a big gain on Sunday, possibly due to Powell's endorsement? The other tracking polls will be interesting today. In case you wanted to know, Zogby releases at 1 a.m., Rasmussen at 9:30 a.m., Gallup at 1 p.m., DailyKos Research 2000 by 9 a.m. or earlier, and several others by 3 p.m. No single poll is that useful, but the total of them can give a good idea of what's happening.

Colin Powell

I'm really hoping the Powell endorses Obama later today on Meet the Press. It would dominate the news on Monday and I am getting the feeling that McCain is going to get a lot of coverage for the SNL Palin appearance and just the fact that he's the underdog. I think Obama should start winning news cycles for the next two weeks to the election with whatever little gimmicks he needs, including endorsements, like Powell, big speeches, ads or whatever. Can't let McCain set the agenda.

The next two weeks

I am excited to hear that Colin Powell might endorse Obama on Meet the Press Sunday. That would be great, as it would give Obama a small boost and dominate the news for a few days. With so few days left until the election, every pro-Obama story that stays in the news robs McCain of any chance to change the discussion.



Lots of stories tonight on how Obama's decision to forgo public financing of his campaign is working out. It appears to have been a smart decision because he is vastly outspending McCain in states McCain can't lose and now can hardly afford to compete in. It may make PA and OH too much for McCain if he has to spend a fortune in VA and FL (especially FL) to win those already red states. Obama just needs to keep the Kerry states and add one of the big battlegrounds- OH, FL, VA, MO, or NC would do it. McCain needs to win all of them. Very difficult at this point.

Debate

Well, I don't work the overnight tonight, but I wanted to comment on the debate. McCain failed miserably. He came across as grumpy, delivering only talking points and silly "gotcha" comments. Example: "I'm not George Bush. If you wanted to run against George Bush you should have run four years ago." Duh, McCain. We get McCain's point, but there's no sophistication to it at all. Obama compares McCain to Bush and McCain did nothing to invalidate the comparison. Stating that Obama could have actually run against Bush four years ago added nothing to his statement.

McCain's whole demeanor was awkward and weird. Obama came across as cool (as usual) and collected. Not fantastic, but that's ok. Still, I have to wonder, Hillary had to be thinking "I could debate circles around these guys." She's right.

The Debate

The political sites online are abuzz with the usual framing of this last debate: it's McCain's last chance and something exciting better happen for him. Obama just needs to keep the status quo.

Ok, I guess that's a fair analysis, but McCain has already screwed up:

First, he has set up a confrontation on the fake "Ayers" issue. Obama knows it's coming and surely has a well thought-out response. Mentioning Ayers will be a dud for McCain, but Obama's response and a discussion of the whole silliness of it will consume pundits before and after the debate. McCain will not change the perception that he is motivated 100% by what advantages him politically, not honor, patriotism, or "maverickness."

Second, McCain has already said he's going to kick Obama's ass at the debate. Ah, McCain is so brilliant- he has raised expectations for himself through the roof and if goes out there and acts like he did the first two debates, people will be like, "WTF", how is that "kicking ass?" If he actually does go after Obama harshly, he'll look desperate, angry and inconsistent because he wasn't really aggressive during the first two debates.

Third, it's the third debate. McCain has set himself up to fail by his just "ok" performance in the first two debates. People are starting to tune out of this election and just want to get it over with. After all, it's dragged on since January! Americans aren't known for their long attention spans.

Hopefully, McCain will accomplish nothing tonight and Obama will continue to excel in the polls. It really is amazing to me how broad Obama's rise has been the last four weeks. Maybe now, all the people who are constantly bitching that Obama can't "seal the deal," "break away," or "make the sale" will silence themselves. Somehow, I doubt it though. To them, if Obama isn't polling 20% ahead of McCain in Utah, Idaho and Wyoming, he really just isn't up to snuff.